The Polish stock exchange is not so bad against the background of European indices. The problem is large companies
Although Wall Street records are set almost every day, and WIG20 is more than half as far from its peaks 9 years ago, Polish investors are not condemned to losses. As Łukasz Bugaj and DM BOŚ argue, European indices are also far from their best performance and some WSE indices are doing quite well. The problem is the blue chips.
- The condition of the Polish stock exchange is diversified, it is difficult to generalise, because large companies behave differently, which are the weakest component of our stock exchange - says Łukasz Bugaj, DM BOŚ analyst, in an interview with the Newseria Inwestor news agency. - On the other hand, smaller or medium-sized companies are in a better position. It should also be remembered that the most exposed WIG20 index, however, is also burdened with high dividends paid by companies that are not included in the index.
The index of the largest companies lost almost 22 per cent in three years, over 34 per cent in five years and more than half of the autumn 2007 records are missing. Meanwhile, WIG is practically at the same level as five years ago and three years ago.
- It is also worth mentioning the least popular index as the price index of the whole market, it contains all the companies listed on the stock exchange, which are of equal importance - says Bugaj. - So these largest entities do not really weigh in this index and it is quite close to its maximum for a few years. In this context, it is quite good, but it is not so visible, because these actors may not be the best-known.
The price index of the entire market is close to the level of five years ago (when a sharp revaluation began in early August 2011) and has been growing almost continuously since the turn of 2012 and 2013. However, it is as far to the maxima of 2007 as WIG20. On Wall Street, on the other hand, there is no end to the records. S&P 500 is already almost 200 points above the level of 2000 points. Dow Jones is on the top and even Nasdaq is only a step away from the maxima of last year.
- If we compare ourselves to the strongest stock exchange, we are unfortunately weaker, and it is visible - admits DM BOŚ analyst. - However, if we compare it to Western Europe, these differences are not so big, especially at the level of medium-sized companies. mWIG40 behaves very similarly to German companies, but this may be due in part to the fact that exports have developed strongly to the West and that these economic ties exist.
The DAX Index has experienced its best days in April last year, and its current levels are almost one-fifth lower. Meanwhile, mWIG40 has lost only 5% since then, despite the fact that a month later the downward spiral began, it affected the largest companies in particular. In the 5-year perspective, average companies on the WSE increased by more than 28%.
According to Bugaj, American heights are not as enviable as they might seem at first glance.
- Wall Street is the strongest, but American stocks are also expensive by historical standards. And if we look at the behaviour of individual sectors on the American stock exchange, since the last historic peak on 21 May last year, defensive sectors have been the best preserved, not cyclical ones. Telecommunications, utilities and utilities grew the most in percentage terms, at a double-digit rate. This means that investors are not discounting the economic recovery, which is weak in the United States, and the results of companies have been practically deteriorating for the last five quarters.
In his opinion, increases in New York are the result of a very mild policy of central banks, which makes deposits or bonds unprofitable, and a relatively new factor, such as brexit, may further prolong or deepen this state of affairs.