Uncertainty is the main factor deterring foreign capital from the Polish stock exchange - believes Jarosław Niedzielewski from Investors TFI. However, the risk factors associated with the change of power are slowly disappearing. The bank tax is in force from February, and the retail sales tax will come into force in September. The only more serious unknown is the issue of currency conversion of franchise loans. When it is decided, the investors will return to the Vistula River.

- It is important for investors that the uncertainty ends as soon as possible, then it will be possible to return to the calculation of the new profitability of industries, how to invest in new conditions, but at least there will be no more uncertainty - says Jarosław Niedzielewski, Director of the Investment Department of Investors TFI, Newseria Inwestor. - The last months of this uncertainty related to various political issues on our stock exchange are already ahead of us and from now on our main indices, such as WIG or WIG 20, will be much closer to our economy, because they are now a little further from it in minus.

Over the last year, WIG 20 lost more than 20%, WIG 20 lost more than 13%. Declines began after the first round of last year's presidential elections and despite a few weeks of rebound in the first quarter of this year, the indices still remain at a much lower level than a year and a half ago. This is facilitated by the presence on the trading floor of large banks burdened with bank tax and possible costs of currency conversion of loans and trading companies, which will be hit by the retail sales tax.

- Fortunately, most of the negative elements, which have been discussed on the Polish stock exchange for two years now, apart from franc loans, are already a thing of the past. We already know what taxes are, both banking and commercial, we know what the consequences will be. However, we do not know much about franchise loans yet, but this is apparently on the last easy to solve problem, which has been with us for almost 2 years or 1.5 years and unfortunately we are burdened by our stock exchange - says Niedzielewski. - The most important thing is to close this problem as soon as possible.

He quotes the example of Hungary, which after Victor Orban's first Fidesz victory in the spring 2010 elections also recorded several years of a side trend after the initial decline, but in January 2015 the Budapest Stock Exchange started to make up for its losses and today is higher than before the Orban government.

- Once all this has been implemented, we can see that over the last 1.5 years there has been a very strong return of foreign investors to the Hungarian market, and institutions such as Moody's and S&P have increased their ratings for Hungary - stresses the director of Investors TFI.

In relation to Poland, the moods are also calming. After an unexpectedly critical decision by Standard & Poor's in mid-January, which cut Poland's rating and outlook, Moody's's next decision in May focused on outlook only, and in July Fitch left both rating parameters unchanged, although expectations for the last two decisions were more negative.

- Our economy is growing by more than 3%. At such times, we should not have negative annual rates of return on major stock exchange indices, but unfortunately we have been doing so for two years. In the coming months, however, we can expect that our stock exchange will catch up with the economy, which means that it will come closer to the good condition of our economy - Niedzielewski optimistically predicts.

It also stresses that the less risky companies are those on the mWIG 40 and sWIG 80 indices, which are less exposed to political storms than the major players. The index of medium-sized companies lost less than 8% during the year, while the smallest companies are even in a slight positive position.

- All the time it is necessary to bet on smaller and medium-sized companies, on exporters benefiting from a wave of uncertainty, which contributes to the fact that the zloty is weaker than it could be. This is good for our exporters, which are many on our stock exchange, and for the industrial sector exporting, in particular to Western Europe - says Jarosław Niedzielewski. - In general, the segment of smaller companies should benefit most from the good situation of the Polish economy.